Working Papers

Monetary Policy in the Presence of Tail Risks

Job Market Paper

Winner of the Princeton Macro, Money, and International Finance Young Researcher Award

Abstract & presentations

This paper develops a New-Keynesian macro-finance model in which higher-order uncertainty directly affects asset prices, the natural rate, and optimal policy.

Presented at: LSE Macro PhD Workshop; Macro, Money and International Finance Conference; St Andrews Workshop in Macroeconomics; PSE-CEPR Policy Forum; Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) Annual Meeting

Our Deficit, Your Problem: Fiscal Sustainability and Exchange Rates

Submitted with Tobias Kawalec

Abstract & presentations

We develop and estimate an open-economy present-value framework showing that debt fluctuations reflect both surplus revisions and discount-rate news tied to global yields and exchange-rate expectations. A two-country model demonstrates how fiscal shocks in a hegemon propagate internationally through exchange rates and real interest rates, generating fiscal contagion.

Presented at: Austrian National Bank; University of Konstanz; LSE Macro PhD Workshop; Macro, Money and International Finance Conference; Econometric Society North American Summer Meeting; GRAPE; Econometric Society European Meeting; 6th Oxford/Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Bank of England Monetary Economics Conference; CEPR European Economic Policy RPN

Pricing the Left Tail: Consumption Skewness and Expected Returns

Submitted with Niklas Schmitz

Abstract & presentations

We propose a novel approach to flexibly estimate the conditional distribution of aggregate consumption growth. We document that Kelly skewness of consumption growth is priced in the cross-section and time series of equity returns.

Presented at: University of Oxford Internal Seminar

A Macro-Finance Model of Credit Spreads

with Theofanis Papamichalis, Dimitrios P. Tsomocos, and Nikolaos Romanidis

Abstract & presentations

This paper shows that fluctuations in corporate credit spreads are driven primarily by the time-varying risk-bearing capacity of financial intermediaries rather than firm fundamentals. We develop a continuous-time heterogeneous-agent model that resolves the credit-spread puzzle, highlights the non-neutrality of default, and characterizes the welfare trade-offs of default penalties.

Presented at: SAET 2025; Cowles Foundation 20th Annual Conference on General Equilibrium and its Applications; SAET-EWET 2026; Mathematics in Finance 2026

The Inequality Multiplier: Market Inelasticity and the Persistence of Wealth Inequality

with Aditya Khemka

Winner of Best Doctoral Paper at Saïd Business School, 2024

Abstract & presentations

We show that rising income inequality, interacting with inelastic asset markets, generates a self-reinforcing “inequality multiplier” through asset price revaluation. A calibrated general equilibrium model matches U.S. trends in equity prices, debt, and wealth concentration, linking financial market structure to persistent wealth inequality.

Presented at: Bank of England Macro Brown Bag; Asian Finance Association, Taipei; Trans-Atlantic Doctoral Conference, London Business School; Rethinking Economic Theory Conference, Athens; ISB Summer Research

Publications

Multilayer Networks For Text Analysis With Multiple Data Types

with Yuanming Tao, Lamiae Azizi, Martin Gerlach, Tiago P. Peixoto, and Eduardo G. Altmann EPJ Data Science, 2021

Winner of Best Thesis at University of Sydney Mathematics Department

Abstract

We propose a multilayer network framework using stochastic block models to jointly analyze text, metadata, and hyperlinks within a unified probabilistic structure. The approach improves topic detection and link prediction across diverse large-scale document datasets.

Work in Progress

Demographic Trends and the Market Price of Risk

with Tim Willems

Dollar Diplomacy and Global Imbalances: Evidence from the Plaza and Louvre Accords

with Marco Garofalo and Roger Vicquéry

Running Towards Disaster: Bank Runs, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices

with Rustam Jamilov, Tobias König, Karsten Müller, and Farzad Saidi

How to Shrink a Central Bank: The Dynamics of Quantitative Tightening

with Seung Joo Lee

The Investor Composition of Public Debt

with Sitong Ding and Tobias Kawalec

Financial Stability Implications of Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Solution in Search of a Problem?

Winner of Best Doctoral Paper at Saïd Business School, 2023