Research
Working Papers
Taming Black Swans: Disaster Risk and the Neutral Rate of Interest
Winner of the Princeton Macro, Money, and International Finance Young Researcher Award
Video
Video
Summary
Summary
I develop and estimate a nonlinear New Keynesian model in which higher disaster risk lowers asset prices and spending, reducing the risk-adjusted neutral rate before any disaster occurs. Evidence from option prices supports interpreting disaster-risk shocks as negative demand shocks. The estimates imply that monetary policy can remain contractionary even as rates are cut if the neutral rate falls faster.
Presentations
Presentations
Presented at: LSE Macro PhD Workshop; Macro, Money and International Finance Conference; St Andrews Workshop in Macroeconomics; PSE-CEPR Policy Forum; Central Bank Research Association (CEBRA) Annual Meeting; Cambridge Macro and Development PhD Conference; Saïd Business School Seminar; Oxford Economics Brownbag Seminar; National Bank of Ukraine Workshop on Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets (2026); Econometric Society European Winter Meeting (2026, forthcoming)
Our Deficit, Your Problem? Fiscal Sustainability, Exchange Rates, and Inflation
Summary
Summary
We study how U.S. fiscal deficits transmit to U.K. borrowing costs and inflation through exchange rates and sovereign bond markets. A two-country model explains this fiscal contagion and shows how the monetary–fiscal policy mix determines the foreign response. Estimated on U.S. and U.K. data, the model attributes about a quarter of the 2021–2023 surge in U.K. producer-price inflation to U.S. fiscal shocks.
Presentations
Presentations
Presented at: Austrian National Bank; University of Konstanz; LSE Macro PhD Workshop; Macro, Money and International Finance Conference; Econometric Society North American Summer Meeting; GRAPE; Econometric Society European Meeting; German Economic Association (VfS) Annual Conference; 6th Oxford/Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Bank of England Monetary Economics Conference; CEPR European Economic Policy RPN; 28th Macro Finance Society Workshop (poster session)
Pricing the Left Tail: Consumption Skewness and Expected Returns
Summary
Summary
We estimate the conditional distribution of future U.S. consumption growth using quantile regressions and machine learning. Greater downside risk, measured by lower Kelley skewness, predicts higher excess equity returns and is priced in the cross section, while variance and dispersion have no comparable predictive power. Monetary easing is associated with lower downside risk when that risk is already high.
Presentations
Presentations
Presented at: University of Oxford Internal Seminar
A Macro-Finance Model of Credit Spreads
Summary
Summary
We develop a continuous-time macro-finance model in which scarce intermediary capital raises the excess bond premium, the part of corporate spreads unexplained by firm-level default risk. The model reproduces the premium’s rise in recessions and shows how default can recapitalize intermediaries and expand credit. Its welfare analysis favors lenient default penalties and tighter leverage limits when intermediary capital is scarce.
Presentations
Presentations
Presented at: SAET 2025; Cowles Foundation 20th Annual Conference on General Equilibrium and its Applications; SAET-EWET 2026; Mathematics in Finance 2026
Supplying Safety to an Aging World: Demographics, Debt, and Risk Premia
Summary
Summary
We show that demographic aging increases demand for safe bonds and reduces households’ capacity to bear equity risk, lowering safe interest rates and raising equity premia. In a two-country model where aging is more pronounced abroad, the relatively younger U.S. supplies safe assets and takes leveraged equity positions, leading to a larger rise in its equity premium.
How to Shrink a Central Bank: The Optimal Pace of Quantitative Tightening
Summary
Summary
We solve for the optimal reserve-drainage path and completion date of quantitative tightening. Reserve scarcity and rapid drainage tighten financial conditions through distinct channels, so announcements affect demand before reserves change. Without output stabilization, optimal drainage starts quickly and tapers. Stabilization can shorten the transition when prolonged scarcity is costly, or lengthen it when payment-flow strains dominate.
The Inequality Multiplier: Portfolio Allocation Frictions and Wealth Inequality
Winner of Best Doctoral Paper at Saïd Business School, 2024
Summary
Summary
We study how portfolio allocation frictions link equity revaluation to household lending and wealth concentration. Restrictions on intermediaries’ substitution between equity and debt amplify the effects of asset demand on inequality in a model calibrated to the U.S. economy. Even with identical equity price paths, these frictions generate a cumulative response of the top wealth share about one third larger than with flexible portfolios, through additional lending.
Presentations
Presentations
Presented at: Bank of England Macro Brown Bag; Asian Finance Association, Taipei; Trans-Atlantic Doctoral Conference, London Business School; Rethinking Economic Theory Conference, Athens; ISB Summer Research; European Economic Association Annual Congress
Publications
Multilayer Networks For Text Analysis With Multiple Data Types
Winner of Best Thesis at University of Sydney Mathematics Department
Abstract
We propose a multilayer network framework using stochastic block models to jointly analyze text, metadata, and hyperlinks within a unified probabilistic structure. The approach improves topic detection and link prediction across diverse large-scale document datasets.
Work in Progress
Dollar Diplomacy and Global Imbalances: Evidence from the Plaza and Louvre Accords
Running Towards Disaster: Bank Runs, Rare Disasters, and Asset Prices
The Investor Composition of Public Debt
Financial Stability Implications of Central Bank Digital Currencies: A Solution in Search of a Problem?
Winner of Best Doctoral Paper at Saïd Business School, 2023